by Mike Mitchell
On Friday night, the Astros (47-34) will open the second half of their schedule with a three-game series at Fenway Park against the Red Sox (37-44). The Astros lifetime record of 6-17 vs. Boston, and 2-9 away from home, combined with the Red Sox platinum-franchise mystique, can provoke an impulse of mid-market inferiority in even the most confident Astros fan.
The 2015 Red Sox, though, are a dumpster fire of the highest order.
Let's briefly review the evidence: |
| Red Sox clubhouse footage obtained by One True Outcome |
1. On May 7th, the Red Sox fired pitching coach Juan Nieves. Despite the ax coming only 28 games into the season, Nieves acknowledged he wasn't surprised. The Red Sox were 13-15 at the time of Nieves's dismissal, having allowed 144 runs (5.1 runs per game). Since tabbing Indians minor-league pitching coach Carl Willis to replace Nieves, the Red Sox are 24-29, though allowing a reduced 4.4 runs per game. Some of that improvement is likely inevitable regression, as the Red Sox are still cumulatively last in the American League in runs per game allowed. (They are a more respectable 10th in FIP at 4.00, alluding to the reality that their defense has been even worse than their pitchers.)
2. Among the litany of on- and off-field player transgressions this year:
- David Ortiz not pleased with being benched. (The declining 39-year old Ortiz has an option for 2016 that is triggered and then escalated repeatedly based on how many plate appearances he logs this season.)
- Mookie Betts and Jackie Bradley Jr., in separate incidents, forgetting how many outs there are. (Mookie's brain cramp was on Wednesday of this week.)
- Pablo Sandoval liking suggestive posts on Instagram during a game he was participating in.
- Hanley Ramirez, according to a Yahoo! Sports report last week, up to his old tricks, with unnamed veterans griping that "his effort bothers people".
3. John Henry, Red Sox principal owner, summed everything up in early June by saying that while nobody will be fired in-season, his team is "painful to watch". Ouch.
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All that said, the Red Sox 37-44 record is a bit misleading. Yes, they appear to be exactly the type of expensive, unlikable group that powers talk radio in big East Coast markets. And on the field, their run differential is consistent with a poor team, as they've been outscored by 43 runs through 81 games, with a Pythagorean record that matches their actual win-loss totals.
However, we can look deeper at the fast-emerging data on Cluster Luck to find a different story. For the uninitiated, Cluster Luck originates from the belief that hitting with runners in scoring position is not a unique skill and therefore some teams randomly score more runs than they deserve by clustering their hits together -- or they allow fewer runs due to opponents inefficiently spreading out their hits. Conversely, some teams have poor luck in these areas. By this measure, the Red Sox have been the second-unluckiest (or least efficient/clutch, if you prefer a skill-based view of this phenomenon) team in MLB. The majority of their negative run differential in 2015 is owed to how they and their opponents have sequenced their production.
Let's get to this weekend's series:
The Red Sox will be missing Dustin Pedroia, who is in the midst of his best season since Theo Epstein and Terry Francona's final year at the helm in 2011. Pedroia is currently on the disabled list with a strained right hamstring. The Sox are expecting both catcher Ryan Hanigan and right fielder Shane Victorino off the disabled list this week after extended absences. Hanigan returned Thursday night in Toronto.
The Astros have lost George Springer for six weeks after he suffered a fractured wrist from an Edinson Volquez fastball on Wednesday night, but should get Colby Rasmus back from an infected spider bite this weekend, and have an outside chance of activating Jake Marisnick from the disabled list when he is eligible on Saturday. Marisnick is currently in Fresno rehabbing a strained hamstring.
Projected Lineups - (Handedness) - 2015 Offensive Wins Above Replacement
Boston
CF Mookie Betts (R) - 2.4
2B Brock Holt (L) - 1.9
SS Xander Bogaerts (R) - 1.8
DH David Ortiz (L) - 0.1
LF Hanley Ramirez (R) - 1.3
3B Pablo Sandoval (S) - 1.1
1B Mike Napoli (R) - 0.1
RF Shane Victorino (R) - 0.5
C Ryan Hanigan (R) - 0.4
The Red Sox are currently using Alejandro De Aza, who was DFA'd by the Orioles a month ago, in right field. He is playing extremely well the past few weeks for Boston (.319/.356/.623), and should start at least a game or two this series, likely for the returning Victorino and perhaps Hanley.
Boston's lineup is fairly balanced left/right, though as a team, the Red Sox are hitting significantly better against right-handed pitching (.262/.326/.407) than lefties (.226/.298/.364). This is especially pronounced without Pedroia. If the Astros had a worthy left-hander to give the ball to on Friday, they likely would have gone in that direction.
Houston
2B Jose Altuve (R) - 1.5
SS Carlos Correa (R) - 1.0
LF Preston Tucker (L) - 0.4
DH Evan Gattis (R) - 0.3
CF Colby Rasmus (L) - 1.4
1B Chris Carter (R) - 0.8
3B Luis Valbuena (L) - 1.2
C Hank Conger (S) - 0.7
RF Alex Presley (L) - N/A
The gap in OWAR between Springer (2.2) and Altuve is the same as the gap between Altuve and guys like Carter and Conger. George will be greatly missed.
As currently constructed, the Astros have a lot of lineup decisions to make on a day-to-day basis:
Game 1 - Friday at 6:10 CT
RHP Justin Masterson (5.58 ERA, 4.74 FIP) vs. RHP Dan Straily (N/A)
Keep expectations low. Straily has lost significant velocity since he broke out as a reliable innings eater for Oakland in 2012. There is no indication, anecdotal or statistical, that he has regained his old form in Triple-A this year. He'll throw strikes, but at this point he's just a store-brand Justin Masterson.
Hey, Justin Masterson! Talk about losing velocity, get a load of this graph. If Masterson and Straily are your first forays into the world of FanGraphs and their PITCHf/x data, losing several miles per hour off your fastball in your late-20s is not typical. Masterson, 30, has dropped 5.4 MPH on his fastball since his 2011 peak with the Indians. He is on his way out of baseball soon unless a major reinvention or Rookie of the Year-style Disney miracle intervenes.
Either one guy is going to pitch surprisingly well, in which case someone wins big, or this is going to be a long slog through two bullpens. In that case, advantage Astros. Following the off day, Hinch has everyone available. The Astros 2.57 bullpen ERA is best in baseball. The Red Sox, at 3.85, are 23rd. Koji Uehara and Junichi Tazawa continue to be fairly reliable at the back end, posting strong ratios as most late-inning relievers do in 2015, but they are no longer unhittable and the middle relief has been flammable.
Friday night is a coin flip. In those situations, I tend to lean towards the home team (Boston), or the more desperate team (also Boston).
Game 2 - Saturday at 12:35 CT
RHP Clay Buchholz (3.48 ERA, 2.66 FIP) vs. RHP Collin McHugh (4.51 ERA, 4.01 FIP)
This is the toughest matchup of the weekend, though McHugh is coming off back-to-back strong outings and appears to have regained some confidence in his pitches.
One thing to look for: Buchholz has been murder on left-handed hitters this year, with a strong reverse platoon split (.633 OPS against, compared to .710 vs. RHB). This was not true prior to this year, when Buchholz had shown slight-but-traditional platoon splits.
Eno Sarris of FanGraphs has a tremendous long piece on Buchholz's development of a new changeup and how that has boosted his performance against lefties, especially for generating weak contact on the ground.
For the Astros, McHugh is probably going to need his pitches working in this one. The Red Sox are clear favorites (though keep in mind that at the Major-League level, the odds almost never tilt against you more than 2-to-1 at the start of any individual game).
The Red Sox already have a pretty good farm system, but if they do sell this month to stock it further, Buchholz would be very high on the list of targets for the Astros. He is under team control on affordable options through 2017, and would cost about $32.5M total through the end of the contract. He's not going anywhere.
Game 3 - Sunday at 12:05 CT
LHP Eduardo Rodriguez (3.92 ERA, 3.37 FIP) vs. RHP Lance McCullers (2.19 ERA, 2.63 FIP)
I hope the Astros have won at least one of the first two games of the series, so that fans can fully enjoy a matchup of two tremendous rookie pitchers. Before the season, Rodriguez was Baseball America's 59th rated prospect, while McCullers was their 77th. MLB.com had them in reverse order, but those small differences are irrelevant by now.
Rodriguez got off to a great start for the Red Sox, allowing only one run in his first three career starts combined. Interestingly, he's been rocked in two of his three home starts, by strong right-hand dominant lineups from Toronto and Baltimore. His other five outings have been excellent, as he's shown the ability to work ahead in counts and work deep in games. The 22-year old a fly ball pitcher, which does partially explain his struggles at home, where the Green Monster has the same short porch effect as the Crawford Boxes.
The Astros lineup vs. lefties is a lot more formidable when Springer is healthy. Still, they will feature Altuve, Correa, Gattis, Carter and likely Santana in the lineup from the right side, all capable of doing big damage in Fenway.
McCullers, meanwhile, has looked exceptional lately. The one red flag has been a tendency to work behind in counts and the walks associated (he's given out 12 free passes in his last four starts). Lance is throwing 56.5% first-pitch strikes, a decent number (for comparison, Rodriguez is 51.5%, while Dallas Keuchel is at 61.7%). His stuff misses bats, and the Astros should feel confident that he will be a major piece of their future. He's pitched his way to untouchable status as trade talks heat up.
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Overall, my optimism for this series is limited. Springer's injury, no Keuchel, and a desperate, reasonably talented Red Sox team that needs a really good 10-to-20 game stretch to save their season and prevent a sell-off are the three main factors working against Houston. A first place team should never be willing to sign for one win in a series, and I wouldn't here, but I also wouldn't be overly disappointed to head to Cleveland 12 games over .500 with Keuchel on the mound Monday night. Across the spectrum of probability, a one-win weekend is the most likely outcome.
All that said, the Red Sox 37-44 record is a bit misleading. Yes, they appear to be exactly the type of expensive, unlikable group that powers talk radio in big East Coast markets. And on the field, their run differential is consistent with a poor team, as they've been outscored by 43 runs through 81 games, with a Pythagorean record that matches their actual win-loss totals.
However, we can look deeper at the fast-emerging data on Cluster Luck to find a different story. For the uninitiated, Cluster Luck originates from the belief that hitting with runners in scoring position is not a unique skill and therefore some teams randomly score more runs than they deserve by clustering their hits together -- or they allow fewer runs due to opponents inefficiently spreading out their hits. Conversely, some teams have poor luck in these areas. By this measure, the Red Sox have been the second-unluckiest (or least efficient/clutch, if you prefer a skill-based view of this phenomenon) team in MLB. The majority of their negative run differential in 2015 is owed to how they and their opponents have sequenced their production.
Let's get to this weekend's series:
The Red Sox will be missing Dustin Pedroia, who is in the midst of his best season since Theo Epstein and Terry Francona's final year at the helm in 2011. Pedroia is currently on the disabled list with a strained right hamstring. The Sox are expecting both catcher Ryan Hanigan and right fielder Shane Victorino off the disabled list this week after extended absences. Hanigan returned Thursday night in Toronto.
The Astros have lost George Springer for six weeks after he suffered a fractured wrist from an Edinson Volquez fastball on Wednesday night, but should get Colby Rasmus back from an infected spider bite this weekend, and have an outside chance of activating Jake Marisnick from the disabled list when he is eligible on Saturday. Marisnick is currently in Fresno rehabbing a strained hamstring.
Projected Lineups - (Handedness) - 2015 Offensive Wins Above Replacement
Boston
CF Mookie Betts (R) - 2.4
2B Brock Holt (L) - 1.9
SS Xander Bogaerts (R) - 1.8
DH David Ortiz (L) - 0.1
LF Hanley Ramirez (R) - 1.3
3B Pablo Sandoval (S) - 1.1
1B Mike Napoli (R) - 0.1
RF Shane Victorino (R) - 0.5
C Ryan Hanigan (R) - 0.4
The Red Sox are currently using Alejandro De Aza, who was DFA'd by the Orioles a month ago, in right field. He is playing extremely well the past few weeks for Boston (.319/.356/.623), and should start at least a game or two this series, likely for the returning Victorino and perhaps Hanley.
Boston's lineup is fairly balanced left/right, though as a team, the Red Sox are hitting significantly better against right-handed pitching (.262/.326/.407) than lefties (.226/.298/.364). This is especially pronounced without Pedroia. If the Astros had a worthy left-hander to give the ball to on Friday, they likely would have gone in that direction.
Houston
2B Jose Altuve (R) - 1.5
SS Carlos Correa (R) - 1.0
LF Preston Tucker (L) - 0.4
DH Evan Gattis (R) - 0.3
CF Colby Rasmus (L) - 1.4
1B Chris Carter (R) - 0.8
3B Luis Valbuena (L) - 1.2
C Hank Conger (S) - 0.7
RF Alex Presley (L) - N/A
The gap in OWAR between Springer (2.2) and Altuve is the same as the gap between Altuve and guys like Carter and Conger. George will be greatly missed.
As currently constructed, the Astros have a lot of lineup decisions to make on a day-to-day basis:
- Presley seems likely to start over Domingo Santana against the righties on Friday and Saturday, though that's not guaranteed. He's also the backup CF should Rasmus be unable to play or leave a game early for whatever reason.
- I would strongly advocate placing Carter and Jon Singleton in a straight platoon and giving Singleton regular at bats vs. RHP, but so far Hinch seems inclined to look for ways to keep Carter in there. Expect Carter to start against at least one of the righties, if not both, in Boston.
- Hank Conger will likely catch Lance McCullers on Sunday vs. a lefty, and with Saturday being a day game after a night game, may catch one of the first two games as well.
- Likewise, Marwin Gonzalez and Santana should rejoin the starting nine on Sunday.
- The biggest beneficiary of Springer's injury would seem to be Tucker. Preston was in danger of losing at bats and quite possibly his roster spot when Marisnick returns. He now seems likely to play regularly again, and could see a bump back up in front of a slumping Valbuena as Houston's Token Early-Lineup Lefty (a.k.a. TELLY - not a threat to catch on).
Game 1 - Friday at 6:10 CT
RHP Justin Masterson (5.58 ERA, 4.74 FIP) vs. RHP Dan Straily (N/A)
Keep expectations low. Straily has lost significant velocity since he broke out as a reliable innings eater for Oakland in 2012. There is no indication, anecdotal or statistical, that he has regained his old form in Triple-A this year. He'll throw strikes, but at this point he's just a store-brand Justin Masterson.
Hey, Justin Masterson! Talk about losing velocity, get a load of this graph. If Masterson and Straily are your first forays into the world of FanGraphs and their PITCHf/x data, losing several miles per hour off your fastball in your late-20s is not typical. Masterson, 30, has dropped 5.4 MPH on his fastball since his 2011 peak with the Indians. He is on his way out of baseball soon unless a major reinvention or Rookie of the Year-style Disney miracle intervenes.
 |
| Justin Masterson in 2018, hanging on best he can. |
Friday night is a coin flip. In those situations, I tend to lean towards the home team (Boston), or the more desperate team (also Boston).
Game 2 - Saturday at 12:35 CT
RHP Clay Buchholz (3.48 ERA, 2.66 FIP) vs. RHP Collin McHugh (4.51 ERA, 4.01 FIP)
This is the toughest matchup of the weekend, though McHugh is coming off back-to-back strong outings and appears to have regained some confidence in his pitches.
One thing to look for: Buchholz has been murder on left-handed hitters this year, with a strong reverse platoon split (.633 OPS against, compared to .710 vs. RHB). This was not true prior to this year, when Buchholz had shown slight-but-traditional platoon splits.
Eno Sarris of FanGraphs has a tremendous long piece on Buchholz's development of a new changeup and how that has boosted his performance against lefties, especially for generating weak contact on the ground.
For the Astros, McHugh is probably going to need his pitches working in this one. The Red Sox are clear favorites (though keep in mind that at the Major-League level, the odds almost never tilt against you more than 2-to-1 at the start of any individual game).
The Red Sox already have a pretty good farm system, but if they do sell this month to stock it further, Buchholz would be very high on the list of targets for the Astros. He is under team control on affordable options through 2017, and would cost about $32.5M total through the end of the contract. He's not going anywhere.
Game 3 - Sunday at 12:05 CT
LHP Eduardo Rodriguez (3.92 ERA, 3.37 FIP) vs. RHP Lance McCullers (2.19 ERA, 2.63 FIP)
I hope the Astros have won at least one of the first two games of the series, so that fans can fully enjoy a matchup of two tremendous rookie pitchers. Before the season, Rodriguez was Baseball America's 59th rated prospect, while McCullers was their 77th. MLB.com had them in reverse order, but those small differences are irrelevant by now.
Rodriguez got off to a great start for the Red Sox, allowing only one run in his first three career starts combined. Interestingly, he's been rocked in two of his three home starts, by strong right-hand dominant lineups from Toronto and Baltimore. His other five outings have been excellent, as he's shown the ability to work ahead in counts and work deep in games. The 22-year old a fly ball pitcher, which does partially explain his struggles at home, where the Green Monster has the same short porch effect as the Crawford Boxes.
The Astros lineup vs. lefties is a lot more formidable when Springer is healthy. Still, they will feature Altuve, Correa, Gattis, Carter and likely Santana in the lineup from the right side, all capable of doing big damage in Fenway.
McCullers, meanwhile, has looked exceptional lately. The one red flag has been a tendency to work behind in counts and the walks associated (he's given out 12 free passes in his last four starts). Lance is throwing 56.5% first-pitch strikes, a decent number (for comparison, Rodriguez is 51.5%, while Dallas Keuchel is at 61.7%). His stuff misses bats, and the Astros should feel confident that he will be a major piece of their future. He's pitched his way to untouchable status as trade talks heat up.
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Overall, my optimism for this series is limited. Springer's injury, no Keuchel, and a desperate, reasonably talented Red Sox team that needs a really good 10-to-20 game stretch to save their season and prevent a sell-off are the three main factors working against Houston. A first place team should never be willing to sign for one win in a series, and I wouldn't here, but I also wouldn't be overly disappointed to head to Cleveland 12 games over .500 with Keuchel on the mound Monday night. Across the spectrum of probability, a one-win weekend is the most likely outcome.
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