So, what I'm saying is, things are good. We could go 32-49 in the second half and beat every single pre-season prediction. But this is a year with legitimate World Series aspirations at this point -- because any team with the best record in its league after 81 games has a realistic chance of winning said league, particularly with a five-game lead in their division in the revised playoff format that places renewed emphasis on winning your division. What are OTO's thoughts on 2015 to date? Glad you asked:
1. A.J. Hinch has shown himself to be the right hire for Jeff Luhnow's vision. He is the blueprint for the modern, analytics-era manager: a minimalist. He does nothing to stand out during games (unless you want to count a half-hearted ejection on the last road trip over a fan interference call), says nothing remotely controversial during press conferences, and has the demeanor of a pleasant branch manager at a successful bank.
2. Hinch's background in Arizona as a front office executive is a huge plus in this regard. He has a deep appreciation for how a front office utilizes pages of data to drive success, and doesn't see himself as pulling the other end of the rope (ahem, looking at you, Scioscia.). Essentially, the Astros have an assistant general manager running the dugout. With no evidence of a lack of buy-in from the players, that's a good thing.
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| Swell guy, that A.J. Hinch. |
2. Hinch's background in Arizona as a front office executive is a huge plus in this regard. He has a deep appreciation for how a front office utilizes pages of data to drive success, and doesn't see himself as pulling the other end of the rope (ahem, looking at you, Scioscia.). Essentially, the Astros have an assistant general manager running the dugout. With no evidence of a lack of buy-in from the players, that's a good thing.
3. Hinch is not perfect. My main contention with him so far is a lack of willingness to fully embrace platoons in his lineup construction, and along those lines, a hesitance to pinch-hit to match up with bullpens in those late-game platoon opportunities. He's almost a bit too much of a hands-off, let them play type, and we've missed some scattered opportunities to maximize our win probability.
4. To a lesser extent, I wish Hinch would embrace quicker hooks for some of his starters, not letting them try to work through an order a third time. More on that tactic in a full feature next week.
5. George Springer has been the team's offensive MVP. His combination of speed and intelligent baserunning, power, outfield range, cannon arm, and patience at the plate is a unique set of skills. If he can convert even 10-15% of his strikeouts into balls in play as he adjusts to the league over the next couple seasons, and sees the associated jump in batting average up into the .285-.300 range, he's a legitimate MVP candidate.
6. The arguments to continue to play Chris Carter are unpersuasive. Yes, he leads all of Major League Baseball with 4.38 pitches/PA. But this has much less value than it did even a dozen or so years ago, as teams have increasingly built loaded bullpens. The benefit of getting a pitcher out of the game with a high pitch count in the 5th or 6th inning is highly questionable. Carter also has limited baserunning value, so the handful of extra walks his approach provides have less value than they otherwise would.
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| Let the man play. |
7. Jon Singleton should never sit vs. right-handed pitching. Like, for at least a month. The Astros were slow on the trigger to bring him back, but Singleton was hitting .321/.441/.667 (!) vs. right-handed pitching in 204 plate appearances with Fresno. As dreadful as he was last year, when he actually had a reverse split for the Astros and hit just .142 vs. righties, there is no reason to believe those numbers are more indicative of his true talent level. Carter's .194/.308/.412 line vs. RHP, not to mention Evan Gattis's .269 OBP, are not obstacles. Singleton is under contract for $2M per season for the next three years, with affordable team options to follow.
8. Speaking of Gattis, that trade is looking like a mistake. A DH with a .269 on-base percentage in a lineup that already skews too right-handed and contact-averse is not an asset. He has had some big hits, and Rio Ruiz has fallen apart in Double-A for the Braves, but there is opportunity cost in dealing two of your top seven or eight prospects in an off-season package. Luhnow could have chased lots of players with Folty and Ruiz. If he had known Preston Tucker would be a Major-League regular, this deal never happens. Gattis has time, and he may slug .550 the rest of the way and win them the pennant, but as of now, he's blocking a stream of young hitters for the future and giving them replacement-level (0.2 WAR) value in the present.
9. I really enjoy Tucker. He may not project as a perennial All-Star, but he should have a long career as a left-handed hitter with a professional approach, slightly above league average overall at an outfield corner. A 102 OPS+ and adequate defense -- which is saying he never improves from what he is now -- on a cost-controlled asset allows you to spend big money elsewhere to plug holes. As mentioned above, a player like Tucker serves to prevent over-spending to pluck questionable established players from other rosters.
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| The sweet swing of a league-average player making no money. |
10. Hinch has admitted in interviews that he needs a left-handed hitter to break up the righties at the top of the order. My prediction, come September, is that Singleton is that guy. Perhaps batting third with Correa behind him in the cleanup spot.
11. I disagree with the widely held view that the Astros should look to upgrade their starting rotation above all else. Ultimately, Luhnow's job is to upgrade the roster significantly. While an elite starting pitcher would certainly do that, so would, say, a catcher. Or a first baseman, for those who aren't buying Singleton.
12. One player I am very curious about is Matt Wieters. The Orioles are clearly buyers, sitting in a tie for first-place in the parity-enriched American League East, but Wieters is an impending free agent whose own manager, Buck Showalter, has speculated for years that Wieters as good as gone. Castro and Conger have been a surprisingly useful platoon, but Wieters switch-hitting and history of success -- he was a 3-5 win player in 2011 and 2012 at his peak and still only 29 -- means he could be quite useful down the stretch. As an impending free agent, the acquisition cost might be lower than some of their other available options. Would I give up Domingo Santana for 2 1/2 months of Wieters? Without hesitation.
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| Wieters was worth 8.4 WAR from 2011-2012. Could he help? |
13. If the Astros wish to avoid dealing too many prospects from their stockpile, they'll need to gauge the market for some of their guys with big league experience. Reports suggest that L.J. Hoes may have a legitimate market. Are there teams with an interest in Carter? Gattis? Jason Castro? Is there a case to sell high on a middle reliever like Will Harris or Josh Fields? Every player has a price, and Luhnow may take a page out of Billy Beane's playbook and upgrade through a trade of Major Leaguers with a fellow contender. This year's market, with a distinct lack of clearly identified buyers and sellers, almost requires it.
14. Johnny Cueto's shoulder scares me, but cost is the ultimate concern there. If he's viewed as potentially damaged goods, and you only need to get 10-15 starts out of his right arm before he signs elsewhere, the chances of getting a discount on the trade and keeping him healthy are pretty good.
15. Cole Hamels is not worth it. Giving up 2-3 top prospects -- we're talking Brett Phillips, Vince Velazquez-level guys -- and then picking up his option for a 4-year, $94.5M remaining outlay beyond this season is the type of move you make for an elite, inner-circle ace starter. Hamels is certainly a very good pitcher, as his 3.43 FIP and 3.1 WAR in the first half of the season indicate, but he is not appreciably better than Cueto. It comes down to whether you believe his age 32 through 35 seasons are going to be worth $94.5M that the Astros could invest elsewhere. There is an argument that similar players would get more on the open market. I would prefer to steer clear of Hamels, particularly with his lack of American League experience and the hefty cost to the system.
16. In general, though, a big trade or two has to happen. The Astros cannot keep all their prospects, and if they self-scout the minors well and get creative with dealing from the current Major League roster where they have some depth to play with, they will emerge with a much stronger 25-man roster and still have a top-3 system going into 2016. There's no excuse to stand pat at this point.
17. Switching gears, I've enjoyed my partial season ticket package to Minute Maid quite a bit. I'm always skeptical when baseball people say "the fan experience needs to be improved", a sentiment I've heard a lot, all the way up to Reid Ryan in remarks about the removal of Tal's Hill. It seems like an excuse to raise ticket prices, particularly when there are changes nobody was asking for.
18. That said, attendance is a problem. Since moving to Houston last year, I've heard all of the excuses:
a. Traffic is a nightmare. (It's really not, relative to other major U.S. cities.)
b. This will never be a baseball town.
c. Nobody goes to baseball games on weeknights. (see "b", I guess.)
d. The ballpark is poorly located.
e. They've been so bad lately, it takes time.
I'll have a full article with my thoughts this weekend, but I will say this: there isn't a ballpark in America you can even fill to 50% of capacity with die-hard baseball fans, the type who have read Moneyball, know who Derek Nottingham is, and participate in Keith Law's ESPN.com chats. Yes, teams like the Red Sox undoubtedly have more of those fans than the Astros, but that's not why they sell out their stadium.
If you want a packed stadium, you absolutely need thousands upon thousands of casual fans who go to the ballpark out of a shared cultural obligation, drink too much beer, and pay attention to roughly 30% of the game -- the tense moments and the star players' at-bats. That's what the high-profile markets have. Tens of thousands of those people who show up. They don't pack the fans in because they have more die-hard stat geeks, or less traffic to contend with, or cheaper tickets, or a prettier stadium. They do it because the citizens take pride in their baseball team's existence as a central feature of summer life in that particular market.
Of course, that's a straightforward statement with a lot of components inside it. On Sunday, we'll look deeper at why the Astros don't have that culture, and how they get there.
16. In general, though, a big trade or two has to happen. The Astros cannot keep all their prospects, and if they self-scout the minors well and get creative with dealing from the current Major League roster where they have some depth to play with, they will emerge with a much stronger 25-man roster and still have a top-3 system going into 2016. There's no excuse to stand pat at this point.
17. Switching gears, I've enjoyed my partial season ticket package to Minute Maid quite a bit. I'm always skeptical when baseball people say "the fan experience needs to be improved", a sentiment I've heard a lot, all the way up to Reid Ryan in remarks about the removal of Tal's Hill. It seems like an excuse to raise ticket prices, particularly when there are changes nobody was asking for.
18. That said, attendance is a problem. Since moving to Houston last year, I've heard all of the excuses:
a. Traffic is a nightmare. (It's really not, relative to other major U.S. cities.)
b. This will never be a baseball town.
c. Nobody goes to baseball games on weeknights. (see "b", I guess.)
d. The ballpark is poorly located.
e. They've been so bad lately, it takes time.
I'll have a full article with my thoughts this weekend, but I will say this: there isn't a ballpark in America you can even fill to 50% of capacity with die-hard baseball fans, the type who have read Moneyball, know who Derek Nottingham is, and participate in Keith Law's ESPN.com chats. Yes, teams like the Red Sox undoubtedly have more of those fans than the Astros, but that's not why they sell out their stadium.
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| Come on, guys. I say VAL-, you say -BUENA. Ready everyone? VAL-! VAL-! ... |
Of course, that's a straightforward statement with a lot of components inside it. On Sunday, we'll look deeper at why the Astros don't have that culture, and how they get there.
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