The Post-Hype Limbo of Jon Singleton

Have we forgotten Big Jon? This man deserves to play.

On June 2nd, 2014, the Astros announced both a contract extension and promotion to the Major Leagues for first base prospect Jonathan Singleton, then a 22-year old who was hitting .267/.397/.544 with 14 HR and 43 RBI through 54 games in the Pacific Coast League. Singleton had been a top-100 MLB prospect for four consecutive years through his rise in the minor leagues, according to both Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus.


Singleton's contract guaranteed a $1.5M pro-rated salary for the remainder of 2014 and $2M per season from 2015-2018, with team options for $2.5M in 2019, $5M in 2020, and $13M in 2021, giving the Astros the option to buy out the first year of Singleton's free agent eligibility. All told, Singleton was guaranteed $10M before his age 27 season, with optional, team friendly arbitration-year salaries.

Players past and present took the rare step of publicly slamming the contract from Singleton's perspective as foolish.

Singleton was then immediately thrust into the middle of the Astros order -- batting one spot in front of Chris Carter in his debut -- and homered in a victory over the Angels. By mid-June, he was regularly batting third, and appeared locked in to the heart of the lineup for years to come.

Unfortunately for him and the team, over the final three months of the season, Singleton completely fell apart. Each month was worse than the one before it. After batting .109 with 26 strikeouts in 54 plate appearances to start September, the Astros shut him down early, a mercy killing of his 2014 season. His line at the end of the year was .168/.285/.335, with 134 strikeouts in just 362 plate appearances.

Following the addition of Evan Gattis as a full-time designated hitter, the Astros shifted Carter to first base, and Singleton began 2015 back in the PCL, playing first base for Fresno. And he raked, bigtime. His .280 average, 17 HR and 66 RBI in 70 games underrates his impact. Singleton positively mauled right-handed pitching, with a .321/.441/.667 line versus RHP. That's not just great, that's pretty much as well as a hitter can possibly hit given the statistical barriers of offensive performance in the sport of baseball.

Manager A.J. Hinch noticed:

"He went down and dominated Triple-A, as he had before," Hinch said. "It's a level that he is proving to be better than. The next step is to compete at this level against big league competition every day."

But then a funny thing happened: upon Singleton's recall on June 26th, Hinch did not actually play him every day. Singleton only started 13 of 28 possible games after his promotion. In his starts, Singleton was most often placed eighth in the batting order, ahead of only automatic out Jake Marisnick.

Both the sporadic nature of his starts and Singleton's lineup placement spoke to a very low confidence level towards a guy who was a top prospect for several years and was arguably the single best hitter in the PCL for the first 12 weeks of the 2015 season.

Singleton was optioned back to Fresno last Friday to make room for Carlos Gomez. In his final at bat before being demoted, Singleton homered. Overall, he hit .205 with six RBIs in his brief time in Houston.

Carter: 121 Ks and a very long leash.

This treatment would be surprising if the Astros were getting reasonable production at first base. Even passable production. But the position has spiraled into a complete disaster as the season has progressed. Carter, who has played regularly all year, is hitting .181 with 17 HR and 121 strikeouts in 367 plate appearances, contributing to an OPS+ of 87 (100 is league average). He is in the running to finish with the lowest batting average by a qualifying hitter in Major League history. According to Baseball-Reference, he has been good for a WAR of minus-0.7, making him significantly worse than a hypothetical freely available first baseman.

Following the return of Jed Lowrie, Luis Valbuena has begun to play more first base, and is in the lineup at the position tonight as the Astros open a critical series in Arlington. Valbuena is hitting .202/.285/.413, with an OPS+ of 91. He has not homered in five weeks. He also happens to have never played first base in his entire life until last week. Seriously, the guy requested a glove from our arch-rival's first baseman.

Lastly, the Astros have chosen to use utility infielder Marwin Gonzalez, who sports a career OPS of .668 with 19 homers in 331 games, as their starting first baseman against some right-handed pitchers.

What is going on here?

Best I can tell, Singleton has a few factors working against him, some objective and some subjective:
1. The acquisition of Gomez and the activation of third baseman Jed Lowrie put a very real roster crunch in play. The Astros are not ready to give up on Carter or Valbuena, and so sending Singleton to the minors is the easiest way to keep their options open.

2. Singleton did not hit well enough in his brief trial to force his way into the lineup.

3. The fans have largely soured on Singleton. Some see him as a flop based on last year's dismal performance. Others don't like his unbuttoned jersey look and detached demeanor. While these are primarily the mouth-breathing moralists who see his appearance as code for "lazy", which itself is code for more unpleasant feelings, there isn't a drumbeat to give Singleton the first base job. (Fans always like seeing scrappy utility infielders play above their natural ability, and Gonzalez has been a favorite of late.)

4. Hinch's treatment of Singleton is telling. You would think a hitter with Singleton's Triple-A resume, long-term contract, youth and obvious potential would be given every opportunity to run away and hide with the first base job. That has not been the case Hinch, like all managers, has his favorites (read: Evan Gattis, who has been a huge disappointment by all modern statistical measures).

5. I was at last Thursday's game in person, and was on the field for batting practice. I was struck by how isolated Singleton was from the team during the pre-game workout. He did not look unhappy, and there is nothing wrong with being an introvert, but Singleton mostly stood around by himself on the left side of the batting cage for a full hour with only brief interaction with George Springer and Valbuena, then launched a bunch of home runs and stood silently again.

Would the Astros really send a guy to the minors because he's a loner? No, that's crazy and insulting to their management. But if Singleton isn't known as a clubhouse guy, it's not hard to see that hurting him at the margins against Carter, Gattis and Valbuena, all of whom appear to be outgoing veteran leaders who are respected by their teammates.

Can't become a respected veteran if they won't play you.

Whatever the reason or combination of reasons, banishing Singleton is hurting the team. His numbers against right-handed pitching in Triple-A are just too astronomical to ignore, especially contrasted with the dumpster fire at first base in Houston. Singleton's success in the Majors is a matter of time.

Additionally, the Astros face pricey decisions on Carter, Gattis and Valbuena in the off-season. The three are making a combined $9M in 2015. Gattis, who has yet to reach arbitration but will after this season, is in line for the biggest raise.

If the Astros keep all three for 2016, their combined salaries will likely fall between $15M and $17M. Singleton, meanwhile is due just $2M.

After holding on to A.J. Reed at the deadline, the Astros have another 1B/DH masher who should be ready by Opening Day 2017. Singleton is in imminent danger of being caught in between a newer, shinier prospect on one side, and barely-mediocre veterans who have their manager's trust on the other.

If the Astros braintrust believes Singleton can still be their first baseman of the future, they need to give him six weeks of regular at bats down the stretch to win over the team's manager, clubhouse and fans. If they choose not to do so, he's almost certain to be traded in the off-season.

That's not how it has to be. Carter and Valbuena should both be trade or non-tender candidates this winter. They are not worth the combined $12M they will likely be paid as a platoon. Singleton has the potential to save the Astros a lot of money, and lock down a spot in the middle of the order for years to come.

I sincerely hope the Astros give him that chance soon. If they don't, there's a pretty strong possibility Jon Singleton will be piling up home runs for an American League rival, and doing so at a discount rate negotiated by our front office.

The time is now, Jeff and A.J.: #FreeSingleton.