Cleveland is, in many ways, a similar foe to Boston.
Their record sits at 38-43, with a minus-21 run differential. This masks the fact that, due to Cluster Luck, they have been the single unluckiest team in baseball, a whopping 36.5 runs behind their expected output based on the statistical performance of their players. There are no outright bad teams in the American League this year, and the Indians are one of many above-average teams disguised as a below-average team.
Unfortunately, the Astros will draw Cleveland's two best pitchers right away, as Carlos Carrasco pitches on Monday night, followed by reigning AL Cy Young Award winner Corey Kluber on Tuesday. The Indians will throw four right-handed pitchers, which leaves Houston with a bit of a log-jam. To date, they have faced more left-handed starters than any team in baseball, but that's largely a quirk of the schedule, and lately they have begun to face a more traditional diet of primarily right-handed starters.
Without George Springer, the Astros currently have no obvious must-start players in the outfield, at DH or at 1B, particularly against righties (Evan Gattis, Chris Carter and Jake Marisnick are all clear everyday guys against lefties). Instead, they have a mish-mash of flawed players who inspire varying levels of confidence when they step to the plate (often very little). Who should be getting the majority of the playing time vs. right-handed pitching? Let's look at the seven candidates for five spots:
| Pos | Bat | Player Name | AVG vs. R | OBP vs. R | SLG vs. R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OF | L | Colby Rasmus | .236 | .291 | .479 |
| CF | R | Jake Marisnick | .281 | .331 | .404 |
| LF | L | Preston Tucker | .242 | .324 | .475 |
| 1B | R | Chris Carter | .193 | .307 | .404 |
| DH | R | Evan Gattis | .254 | .279 | .492 |
| 1B | L | Jon Singleton (AAA/ML) | .314 | .431 | .646 |
| OF | L | Alex Presley (AAA) | .287 | .328 | .362 |
Three Quick Conclusions:
1. When you factor in his Gold Glove-caliber defense in CF, Marisnick is in. He's actually shown a reverse split this year, really struggling with lefties. Regardless, his glove plays, and his speed makes him a good fit as a #9 hitter, where A.J. Hinch usually slots him.
2. Rasmus and Tucker are both hitting well against righties, with high slugging percentages masking some difficulty with contact. They also slot in nicely in right field and left field around Marisnick, giving the Astros their best all-around outfield. Tucker, for all the talk of his not having a platoon split, hasn't had a clue against lefties at the Major League level, with an OPS of .550.
3. Presley has no case, as he was an average hitter in Triple-A. He's really not a Major League player, and fans need to avoid jumping on his bandwagon if he has a few "scrappy" games like Friday night where he punches a couple base hits. He's not very good at baseball, relatively speaking, and I almost find myself rooting for him to struggle initially (in low-leverage situations) so we don't get sucked into a stretch of everyday Presley while he regresses.
That leaves Gattis, Carter and Singleton for two spots, pretty much what I'd expected. Gattis and Carter are the easiest to compare, as they've been batting in the middle of the same lineup against the same pitchers all year. Gattis has been better, with more contact and more power. Carter sees a lot of pitches and walks more, but he has clearly shown to be the less reliable of the two right-handed mashers.
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| Nothing but RHPs this week. Let the big dog eat, A.J. |
That brings us to the big goofy elephant in the room: Jon Singleton. The man destroyed right-handed pitching in Fresno. He was basically too good for the league. By Jeff Luhnow's dominate-the-level standard, he came up a month too late. Now, he also hit .142 against right-handers in more than half a season with the Astros last year, and that performance is fresh enough to matter.
So, Astros fans, who would you prefer to see more of this week: a 28-year old hitting .193/.307/.404, or a 23-year old coming off a Triple-A OPS an astounding 400 points higher (Singleton's slugging alone, at .667, was 263 points above what Carter has done at MMP). The concept of precise Major League Equivalencies for minor-league statistics has largely been discredited as junk science, but it's safe to say Carter's Houston line would be close to a worst-case scenario translation of Singleton's Fresno line. Singleton should play.
Not only that, he should probably be hitting ahead of Rasmus and Gattis in the order. My highly optimistic projected lineup for the Cleveland series:
2B Altuve (R)
LF Tucker (L)
SS Correa (R)
1B Singleton (L)
RF Rasmus (L)
DH Gattis (R)
3B Valbuena (L)
C Castro (L)
CF Marisnick (R)
More realistically, Carter will start at least two games and possibly three, and Singleton will bat behind Gattis, Rasmus and Valbuena when he does play in that 4-through-7 crapshoot. And fine, batting order itself is overrated. Make him earn his way up. But please, just play Singleton.
Projected Indians Lineup (Handedness) - 2015 Offensive Wins Above Replacement
2B Kipnis (L) - 4.6
SS Lindor (S) - minus-0.2
LF Brantley (L) - 1.2
1B Santana (S) - 0.7
RF Moss (L) - 0.8
DH Murphy (L) - 1.0
C Gomes (R) - minus-0.2
CF Bourn (L) - minus-0.0
3B Urshela (R) - 0.1
If the Indians were a little luckier and sitting a few games over .500 instead of a few games under, Jason Kipnis would be getting a lot of MVP pub. No offense to our #VoteAltuve crowd, but Kipnis is easily the best second baseman in the American League. It's not close.
The rest of this lineup is a lefty-heavy tire fire. Santana, Moss and Murphy are all patient guys who work counts but have limited pop and no baserunning value. They're exactly the type of 1-2 WAR platoon bats that analytically inclined teams often employ at the corners for cheap offense. (Being this type of player is a conservative estimate for Preston Tucker's career.) The problem for the Indians is, they're being counted on to be major run producers every day, and that's mostly not happened. Still, as with Boston's performance against Lance McCullers, this Indians lineup could give a right-hander with command issues problems, something to look out for in the Vince Velazquez start on Tuesday night.
The player who has really hurt this offense is Gomes. He was outstanding in 2014, winning the Silver Slugger at catcher with a .472 SLG and 21 home runs, and was being counted on to give them a right-handed power bat in the middle of the order. Instead, he's been a complete mess, hitting .216 with an Infante-esque .229 on-base percentage. He has three home runs and three walks. Recently, he has been losing playing time, though a 7-for-19 stretch in his last five games has restored some optimism. It's hard for a 27-year old to go from a Silver Slugger to hitting like a pitcher in one season, but that's what Gomes has done.
One issue with this Indians lefty-dominant batting order is the Astros lack of dependable left-handed relief. Joe Thatcher and Tony Sipp are both going to be busy in the series, and they will need to get big outs. Pat Neshek, who normally has significant platoon splits, will not see any stretches of right-handed hitters in his set-up work. The late innings could be a grind.
Let's take a quick tour through the four games:
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| Thanks to Carrasco, Cleveland now has two aces, and we get both. |
Game 1 - Monday at 6:10 PM CT
LHP Dallas Keuchel (2.03 ERA, 2.92 FIP) vs. RHP Carlos Carrasco (3.88 ERA, 2.77 FIP)
Carrasco, who pitches in the shadow of Kluber to the national fan, has been tremendous, striking out 10.2 batters per 9 (translated vs. the Astros lineup to Eleventy Billion per 9). Not accounting for Houston's superior defense, he's been every bit Keuchel's equal so far this season, despite his cluster-inflated 3.88 ERA. Carrasco has been especially lethal vs. lefties, who are hitting .206/.266/.326 against him. He profiles statistically very similar to Clay Buchholz, who the Astros had no chance against on Saturday.
I am reasonably optimistic about this game. The Indians lineup is an equally poor fit against Keuchel, who generally works ahead in counts and doesn't allow walk-seekers like Santana to exploit him. That said, it's probably as close to a toss-up as a Keuchel start can be, and if either team puts a couple runs up early, the game swings wildly in their favor.
Game 2 - Tuesday at 6:10 PM CT
RHP Vincent Velazquez (4.21 ERA, 3.47 FIP) vs. Corey Kluber (3.64 ERA, 2.45 FIP)
Kluber has had even worse luck than Carrasco. He has been as dominant as he was last year in his peripherals, with a higher strikeout rate and lower walk rate. However, his ERA has gone up more than a run, and he leads the American League with nine losses, one year after leading the league with 18 wins.
The real Kluber is still a dominant ace, a half-notch above Carrasco due to slightly better control and track record. This is going to be a really tough game for the Astros, who will need Velazquez to be on his game.
The Indians have the kind of lineup that wears down pitchers like Velazquez, an endless string of lefties who work counts and drive up pitch counts. Unless they can get to Kluber early, the Astros are going to need their bullpen to be sharp in this one to create drama in the late innings. I like their chances better than I did going into Saturday's game, largely because Velazquez has more variability in his performance than Collin McHugh, and is capable of matching Kluber if his stuff is really on.
Game 3 - Wednesday at 6:10 PM CT
RHP Dan Straily (7.71 ERA, 4.80 FIP) vs. RHP Trevor Bauer (3.88 ERA, 4.03 FIP)
The Astros begin their final trip through the rotation of the first half with the final start Straily is likely to make in the Major Leagues any time soon. Luckily the Astros again have a matchup that gives them hope of providing run support for their spot starter. Bauer leads the American League in walks and can be homer-prone. As with Carrasco, he has a defined reverse split (though his peripherals are traditionally skewed towards same-handed hitters).
I would love to see Hinch limit Straily to two trips through the batting order, no matter how well he's doing, to avoid the mess he got himself into in the fifth inning on Friday night against the top of the Red Sox order. His flat, slider-heavy arsenal cannot get through the heart of an order three times, and any 5th or 6th inning at bats for Kipnis, Brantley and Moss are going to be hold-your-breath moments for Astros fans. Hold Straily's hand for 18 hitters, hope he gets you at least 12 outs, and then move on.
Game 4 - Thursday at 6:10 PM CT
RHP Collin McHugh (4.54 ERA, 4.03 FIP) vs. RHP Cody Anderson (0.91 ERA, 2.91 FIP)
Cody Anderson has had three very good starts since coming up from Triple-A Columbus. He pitches to contact, with only 64 Ks across 92 1/3 innings this year at three levels. He's also allowed only three home runs. Impressive numbers aside, there is nothing in the Indians defensive performance behind their co-aces that suggests they can support a pitcher who puts the ball in play as often as Anderson does for any extended period of time. He does not have electric stuff, and his numbers are extremely likely to come back to earth.
McHugh, meanwhile, is settling in as a functional mid-rotation starter, an innings eater in the traditional sense. It would be nice if the guy who struck out more than a batter per inning last year came back, and he is constantly making mechanical tweaks towards that end, but a 4 FIP pitcher who isn't even arbitration eligible until 2017 is still a tremendous value. The Astros are scouring the trade market in search of a pitcher to slot in front of him in a potential playoff rotation, but that's not McHugh's fault.
This lineup is somewhat problematic for him, and I could see another long, tedious, choppy outing. That said, he often gets very good run support, and this matchup should be no exception.
Overall, this is a fairly evenly matched series. If you told me the teams did not split the four games, I would lean towards Cleveland winning three of them. In a hypothetical run of computer simulations, they have a slight cumulative advantage in this series. Astros fans should be satisfied with a split.
To me, the x-factor for Houston is going to be Neshek. There will likely be multiple games in this series that feature Neshek pitching a high leverage inning against primarily left-handed hitters. If he can use his slider effectively and keep those guys off balance, the Astros will be in good shape.
Back on Thursday with a feature on Tampa Bay's starting pitching strategy, and a series preview to follow.
And just a reminder: #PlaySingleton
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